Author: Vir Bannerjee Bulchandani; Saumya Shivam; Sanjay Moudgalya; S L Sondhi
Title: Digital Herd Immunity and COVID-19 Document date: 2020_4_18
ID: k8xuv5xy_43
Snippet: An alternative approach is to derive a self-consistent estimate for p CA directly, by explicitly taking into account some of the higher-order, multi-node processes of transmission. The key observation is that an infectious node i = CA can infect a susceptible neighbour j in only three ways that allow for continued transmission; either infection is transmitted directly off the contact network, i → j ∈ {N A, N S}, infection is transmitted off t.....
Document: An alternative approach is to derive a self-consistent estimate for p CA directly, by explicitly taking into account some of the higher-order, multi-node processes of transmission. The key observation is that an infectious node i = CA can infect a susceptible neighbour j in only three ways that allow for continued transmission; either infection is transmitted directly off the contact network, i → j ∈ {N A, N S}, infection is transmitted off the contact network via a pre-symptomatic, on-network intermediary, i → j = CS → k ∈ {N A, N S}, or transmission is perpetuated by another asymptomatic node j ∈ CA on the contact network. To account for these three possibilities, we can write down a self-consistent equation for p CA ,
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