The effect of reopening policy on COVID-19 related cases and deaths

Zhou, Q.

By May 29, 2020, all 50 states in the United States had reopened their economies to some extent after the coronavirus lockdown. Although there are many debates about whether states reopened their economies too early, no study has examined this effect quantitatively. This paper takes advantage of the daily cases, deaths, and test data at the state level, and uses the synthetic control method to address this question. I find that reopening the economy caused an additional 2000 deaths in the 6 states (Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas) that reopened before May 1st by three weeks after reopening. It also increased daily confirmed cases by 40%, 52%, and 53% after the first, second, and third week of reopening, respectively. Moreover, contrary to scientists' prescription that expanding tests is a necessary condition for reopening, these states witnessed a decline in daily tests by 17%, 47%, and 31% after the first, second, and third week of reopening, respectively.