Author: Patrick Jenny; David F Jenny; Hossein Gorji; Markus Arnoldini; Wolf-Dietrich Hardt
Title: Dynamic Modeling to Identify Mitigation Strategies for Covid-19 Pandemic Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: ngsstnpr_50
Snippet: From our analysis we conclude that testing every individual without symptoms roughly every 10 days would reduce the reproduction number of Covid-19 to one and thereby stabilize the pandemic, which is very promising. After a while, fewer and fewer infected people (who spread the virus) will be detected. In this way, continued large scale testing can verify the success of the mitigation strategy. Mass testing should be continued beyond this point, .....
Document: From our analysis we conclude that testing every individual without symptoms roughly every 10 days would reduce the reproduction number of Covid-19 to one and thereby stabilize the pandemic, which is very promising. After a while, fewer and fewer infected people (who spread the virus) will be detected. In this way, continued large scale testing can verify the success of the mitigation strategy. Mass testing should be continued beyond this point, though at a reduced frequency. This would allow to detect if the fraction of infected person tends to increase. If this were the case, testing frequencies should again be ramped up. In any case, unless the virus can be defeated completely and globally by reducing the number of infected individuals to zero, there is a risk of Corvid-19 re-emergence after such mitigation measures are abandoned.
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