Mathematical modeling suggests pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2

Carlsson, M.; Hatem, G.; Soderberg-Naucler, C.

Mathematical models have largely failed to predict the unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic. We revisit several variants of the SEIR-model and investigate various adjustments to the model in order to achieve output consistent with measured data in Manaus, India and Stockholm. In particular, Stockholm is interesting due to the almost constant NPI's, which substantially simplifies the mathematical modeling. Analyzing mobility data for Stockholm, we argue that neither behavioral changes, age and activity stratification nor NPI's alone are sufficient to explain the observed pandemic progression. We find that the most plausible hypothesis is that a large portion of the population, between 40 to 65 percent, have some protection against infection with the original variant of SARS-CoV-2.