Does TB Vaccination Reduce COVID-19 Infection?: No Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Analysis

Masao Fukui; Kohei Kawaguchi; Hiroaki Matsuura

In Colombia, the BCG vaccination was introduced in 1960 as a mass campaign targeted at young people under 15 years old (Arbeláez, Nelson and Muñoz, 2000) . In 1978, the strain changed from English/Japan to French. Thus, we can study the effects at three distinct time boundaries: 1945 (i.e. 1960 minus 15) when people covered by the campaign were born, 1960 when the vaccination was introduced, and 1978 when the strain changed. In the Czech republic, BCG vaccination was introduced in 1953 for people under 18 (Tu et al., 2012) , and stopped universal vaccination in 2010 (Vašáková, 2013) . They changed from the Plague to the Russia strain in 1981 and changed from the Russia to the Danish strain in 1994. This paper investigated the effects at 1935 (i.e. 1953 minus 18), 1953, 1981, 1994, and 2010 . In Thailand, the BCG vaccination was introduced in 1977 for infants. In 1987, they changed from the Danish to the Japan strain. Between 1987 and 1991, they revaccinated at age 7. We study the effects at 1977 and 1991. In Vietnam, the BCG vaccination was introduced in 1985 for infants (Jit et al., 2015) . Older people were not vaccinated, because they do not have a revaccination policy. In Singapore, the BCG vaccination started in 1957 (Goh, 1985) . Because they revaccinate at ages 6, 11, and 15, we also studied the effect at 1942 (i.e. 1957 minus 15). Vietnam and Singapore do not use the Japan or Russia/Bulgaria strains.