Predictions for COVID-19 outbreak in India using Epidemiological models

Ranjan, Rajesh

COVID-19 data from India is compared against several countries as well as key states in the US with a major outbreak, and it is found that the basic reproduction number R_0 for India is in the expected range of 1.4-3.9. Further, the rate of growth of infections in India is very close to that in Washington and California. Exponential and classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models based on available data are used to make short and long-term predictions on a daily basis. Based on the SIR model, it is estimated that India will enter equilibrium by the end of May 2020 with the final epidemic size of approximately 13,000. However, this estimation will be invalid if India enters the stage of community transmission. The impact of social distancing, again with the assumption of no community transmission, is also assessed by comparing data from different geographical locations.