A Year Trend Analysis and Spatial Distribution of COVID-19 Cases in Nepal.

Basnet, Buddha Bahadur; Pant, Ramesh Raj; Bishwakarma, Kiran; Paudel, Sudip; Pandey, Nashib; Adhikari, Samir Kumar; Ranabhat, Kamal; Ghimire, Archana

This study analyzes the trend and spatial distribution of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases with geographic information systems approach from January 23, 2020, to January 1, 2021. The prevalence of COVID-19 on the tested population, the case fatality rate, and cured rate in Nepal was ~13.00%, ~0.71%, and ~96.97%, respectively. The prevalence (~1.87) and death rate (~1.28 times) were higher among men than women and ~68% of fatal cases were with comorbidities-distinctly hypertension and chronic kidney diseases. The distribution of COVID-19 cases was heterogeneous across all administrative regions, mainly in Kathmandu valley and Bagmati Province. Confirmed and cured cases showed an upward trend till the end of October 2020 followed by a downward trend as of January 1, 2021. In the present scenario of the ongoing pandemic in Nepal, one of the better strategies to prevent and control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) could be monitoring using geographic information systems and spatial analysis.