Detecting Treatment Effect Modifiers in Social Networks

Gilad, Amir; Parikh, Harsh; Roy, Sudeepa; Salimi, Babak

We study treatment effect modifiers for causal analysis in a social network, where neighbors' characteristics or network structure may affect the outcome of a unit, and the goal is to identify sub-populations with varying treatment effects using such network properties. We propose a novel framework called Testing-for-Effect-Modifier (TEEM) for this purpose that facilitates data-driven decision making by testing hypotheses about complex effect modifiers in terms of network features or network patterns (e.g., characteristics of neighbors of a unit or belonging to a triangle), and by identifying sub-populations for which a treatment is likely to be effective or harmful. We describe a hypothesis testing approach that accounts for unit's covariates, their neighbors' covariates and patterns in the social network, and devise an algorithm incorporating ideas from causal inference, hypothesis testing, and graph theory to verify a hypothesized effect modifier. We perform extensive experimental evaluations with a real development economics dataset about the treatment effect of belonging to a financial support network called self-help groups on risk tolerance, and also with a synthetic dataset with known ground truths simulating a vaccine efficacy trial, to evaluate our framework and algorithms.