Author: Adam J Kucharski; Timothy W Russell; Charlie Diamond; Yang Liu; John Edmunds; Sebastian Funk; Rosalind M Eggo
Title: Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study Document date: 2020_2_2
ID: gmi1ewc2_1
Snippet: As of 13 th February 2020, an outbreak of COVID-19 has resulted in 46,997 confirmed cases (1) . The outbreak was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, with the majority of early cases being reported in the city. The majority of internationally exported cases reported to date have a travel history to Wuhan (2) . In the early stages of a new infectious disease outbreak, it is crucial to understand the transmission dynamics of the infe.....
Document: As of 13 th February 2020, an outbreak of COVID-19 has resulted in 46,997 confirmed cases (1) . The outbreak was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, with the majority of early cases being reported in the city. The majority of internationally exported cases reported to date have a travel history to Wuhan (2) . In the early stages of a new infectious disease outbreak, it is crucial to understand the transmission dynamics of the infection. In particular, estimation of changes in transmission over time can provide insights into the current epidemiological situation (3) and identify whether outbreak control measures are having a measurable effect (4, 5) . Such analysis can inform predictions about potential future growth (6) , help estimate risk to other countries (7) , and guide the design of alternative interventions (8) .
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