Author: Dawd S Siraj; Amir S Siraj; Abigail Mapes
Title: Early estimates of COVID-19 infections in small, medium and large population clusters Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: kq72rtia_17
Snippet: For larger cluster of 3M population, 50% coverage of contact tracing and isolation yielded in an estimated 8k (95% CI 42-20k), 81k (95% CI 103-141k), 575k (95% CI 274-867k) cases for R 0 values of 2, 2.5 and 3 respectively (Fig 1, S1 Fig.) , while there would be 116k (95% CI 13k-1727k), 1M (95% CI 113k-2.66M) and 2.5M (95% CI 623k-2.8M) respectively if no contact tracing was assumed (Fig 1, S2 Fig) . With 80% contact tracing and isolation impleme.....
Document: For larger cluster of 3M population, 50% coverage of contact tracing and isolation yielded in an estimated 8k (95% CI 42-20k), 81k (95% CI 103-141k), 575k (95% CI 274-867k) cases for R 0 values of 2, 2.5 and 3 respectively (Fig 1, S1 Fig.) , while there would be 116k (95% CI 13k-1727k), 1M (95% CI 113k-2.66M) and 2.5M (95% CI 623k-2.8M) respectively if no contact tracing was assumed (Fig 1, S2 Fig) . With 80% contact tracing and isolation implemented, these figures would go down to 2k (95% CI 45-17k), 25k (95% CI 43-100k) and 192k (95% CI 108-611k) for basic reproduction number R 0 values of 2, 2.5 and 3 respectively (Fig 1, S3 Fig) .
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