A modified SEIR model to predict the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain: simulating control scenarios and multi-scale epidemics

Leonardo R Lopez; Xavier Rodo

To this end, we tested the potential effects of intervention strategies to control and reduce social contacts. Effects of the adopted policies on March, 14 are not yet known or they can barely begin to show up as substantial changes in the epidemic curve at this date (see Appendix for an update to March 31. To help in the evaluation, we generated different scenarios with varying values of α, in order to simulate effects of social protection. Increases in α were structured in scenarios representing up to 10 times larger values than in that obtained from observations up to March 23. The results of these scenarios are summarised in Figure 5 . A drastic decrease in the resulting number of cases can be seen, if we increase the actual daily protection rate around ten times.