Optimization using the firefly algorithm of ensemble neural networks with type-2 fuzzy integration for COVID-19 time series prediction

Melin, Patricia; Sánchez, Daniela; Monica, Julio Cesar; Castillo, Oscar

In this paper, the latest global COVID-19 pandemic prediction is addressed. Each country worldwide has faced this pandemic differently, reflected in its statistical number of confirmed and death cases. Predicting the number of confirmed and death cases could allow us to know the future number of cases and provide each country with the necessary information to make decisions based on the predictions. Recent works are focused only on confirmed COVID-19 cases or a specific country. In this work, the firefly algorithm designs an ensemble neural network architecture for each one of 26 countries. In this work, we propose the firefly algorithm for ensemble neural network optimization applied to COVID-19 time series prediction with type-2 fuzzy logic in a weighted average integration method. The proposed method finds the number of artificial neural networks needed to form an ensemble neural network and their architecture using a type-2 fuzzy inference system to combine the responses of individual artificial neural networks to perform a final prediction. The advantages of the type-2 fuzzy weighted average integration (FWA) method over the conventional average method and type-1 fuzzy weighted average integration are shown.