Selected article for: "credible interval and large number"
Author: Hongzhe Zhang; Xiaohang Zhao; Kexin Yin; Yiren Yan; Wei Qian; Bintong Chen; Xiao Fang
Title: Dynamic Estimation of Epidemiological Parameters of COVID-19 Outbreak and Effects of Interventions on Its Spread
  • Document date: 2020_4_6
    • ID: ff4937mj_14
    Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050310 doi: medRxiv preprint under the intervention (solid blue line), with the shaded areas representing the 95% credible interval. During the evaluation period, if the intervention of large scale hospitalization had not been imposed, the number of infections would be expected to be 207,123 [95% CI 90,436-446,456] by February 14, 2020. .....
    Document: The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050310 doi: medRxiv preprint under the intervention (solid blue line), with the shaded areas representing the 95% credible interval. During the evaluation period, if the intervention of large scale hospitalization had not been imposed, the number of infections would be expected to be 207,123 [95% CI 90,436-446,456] by February 14, 2020. With this benchmark number, the number of infections that had been prevented was 90,072, giving 43% reduction from the scenario of no intervention. The implementation of this intervention relied on the establishment and operation of two emergency specialty field hospitals, the Vulcan Mountain Hospital and the Thunder Mountain Hospital, sixteen temporary makeshift hospitals 18 , as well as the Fire Eye Lab that enabled massive nucleic acid detection 14 . These hospitals in total had roughly 15,000 beds, which significantly increased the quarantine and treatment capacity of the public health system 19 . The added testing and treatment capacities due to the intervention allowed more timely identification and isolation of infected people, thereby reducing the number of infections.

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