Dynamic Estimation of Epidemiological Parameters of COVID-19 Outbreak and Effects of Interventions on Its Spread

Hongzhe Zhang; Xiaohang Zhao; Kexin Yin; Yiren Yan; Wei Qian; Bintong Chen; Xiao Fang

The next state is then set to be Θ (k) = Θ * Z + Θ (k−1) (1 − Z), where Z has Bernoulli distribution with probability parameter min(1, r). If {Θ (l) } l=1,...,K is the MCMC sample obtained after a "burn-in" period, the posterior mean estimator is approximated asΘ =