A model to forecast regional demand for COVID-19 related hospital beds

Johannes Opsahl Ferstad; Angela Jessica Gu; Raymond Ye Lee; Isha Thapa; Andrew Y Shin; Joshua A Salomon; Peter Glynn; Nigam H Shah; Arnold Milstein; Kevin Schulman; David Scheinker

When considering the limited healthcare resources anticipated, the need for strengthening collaborative operational planning and research between institutions and across the public and private sectors is paramount. While hospital leaders may be concerned with the impact of COVID-19 infections at their facility, our model assesses the potential impact of the epidemic at a county and state level. Assessing the regional impact can permit collaborative and coordinated planning between public health and hospital leaders facing an unprecedented challenge. Regional and state leaders are better equipped to understand the potential implications, such as funding and cost-sharing, of this epidemic across counties within a state. These conversations are facilitated by the ability to study several counties in a region.