Author: Dawd S Siraj; Amir S Siraj; Abigail Mapes
Title: Early estimates of COVID-19 infections in small, medium and large population clusters Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: kq72rtia_15
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint Similarly, by the end of the first 90 days, a cluster of 1M with 50% coverage of contact tracing and isolation will have an estimated 7k (95% CI 92-17k), 70k (95% CI 103-135k), 416k (95% CI 379-532k) cases for R 0 values of 2, 2.5 and 3 respectively (Fig 1, S1 Fig) . Compare with 117k (95% CI 18k-659k), 608k (95% CI 108k-894k) and 900k (95% CI 409k-945k) if no contact tra.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint Similarly, by the end of the first 90 days, a cluster of 1M with 50% coverage of contact tracing and isolation will have an estimated 7k (95% CI 92-17k), 70k (95% CI 103-135k), 416k (95% CI 379-532k) cases for R 0 values of 2, 2.5 and 3 respectively (Fig 1, S1 Fig) . Compare with 117k (95% CI 18k-659k), 608k (95% CI 108k-894k) and 900k (95% CI 409k-945k) if no contact tracing was assumed (Fig 1, S2 Fig.) . With 80% contact tracing and isolation implemented, the number of infected cases would go down to 2k (95% CI 27-15k), 21k (95% CI 38-103k) and
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