Author: Dawd S Siraj; Amir S Siraj; Abigail Mapes
Title: Early estimates of COVID-19 infections in small, medium and large population clusters Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: kq72rtia_19
Snippet: In addition to the effects of contact tracing, our results show dramatic differences in outcomes due to the timing of contact tracing. With 80% contact tracing implemented at the time of 50 infections instead of when 100 infections occurred, number of infections could be lowered by 2k (95% CI 20-11k), 7k (95% CI 22-20k), and 10k (95% CI 50-26k) for basic reproduction number R 0 values of 2, 2.5 and 3 respectively (Fig 2) . The effects are even mo.....
Document: In addition to the effects of contact tracing, our results show dramatic differences in outcomes due to the timing of contact tracing. With 80% contact tracing implemented at the time of 50 infections instead of when 100 infections occurred, number of infections could be lowered by 2k (95% CI 20-11k), 7k (95% CI 22-20k), and 10k (95% CI 50-26k) for basic reproduction number R 0 values of 2, 2.5 and 3 respectively (Fig 2) . The effects are even more dramatic when we consider a population size of 1M and 3M. With 80% of contact tracing assumed, implementing . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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