Author: Tsang, Tim K; Wu, Peng; Lau, Eric H Y; Cowling, Benjamin J
Title: Accounting for imported cases in estimating the time-varying reproductive number of COVID-19 in Hong Kong Cord-id: 0stqy1qf Document date: 2021_6_4
ID: 0stqy1qf
Snippet: Estimating the time-varying reproductive number, R(t), is critical for monitoring transmissibility of an infectious disease. The impact of imported cases on the estimation is rarely explored. We developed a model to estimate separately the R(t) for local cases and imported cases, with accounting for imperfect contact tracing of cases. We applied this framework to data on COVID-19 outbreaks in Hong Kong. The estimated R(t) for local cases rise above 1 in late March, 2020, which was undetected by
Document: Estimating the time-varying reproductive number, R(t), is critical for monitoring transmissibility of an infectious disease. The impact of imported cases on the estimation is rarely explored. We developed a model to estimate separately the R(t) for local cases and imported cases, with accounting for imperfect contact tracing of cases. We applied this framework to data on COVID-19 outbreaks in Hong Kong. The estimated R(t) for local cases rise above 1 in late March, 2020, which was undetected by other commonly used methods. When imported cases accounted for a considerable proportion of all cases, their impact on estimating R(t) is critical.
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