Dynamic Estimation of Epidemiological Parameters of COVID-19 Outbreak and Effects of Interventions on Its Spread

Hongzhe Zhang; Xiaohang Zhao; Kexin Yin; Yiren Yan; Wei Qian; Bintong Chen; Xiao Fang

Although our study uncovers some convincing approximation on the dynamic progression patterns of COVID-19 in Wuhan, there remain some limitations. Here we assume that all recovered patients become totally immune to the novel coronavirus infection. If recovered patients are still susceptible, an extension from SIQR to SIQRS (that is, Susceptible-Infective-Quarantined-Removed-Susceptible) may be employed, while the general framework of our method remains largely applicable. In addition, the removed compartment in our model contains both death and cured cases, which prevents us from estimating the time-varying case fatality rates. Consequently, our assessment of large scale hospitalization does not reflect its effectiveness in death toll reduction, although literature has shown that promptly hospitalizing infected people could reduce the fatality rate for older adults and even for those with mild symptoms 20, 21, 22, 23, 24 . Future studies may investigate the trajectory of fatality rates by treating death and cured cases separately.