Author: Hongzhe Zhang; Xiaohang Zhao; Kexin Yin; Yiren Yan; Wei Qian; Bintong Chen; Xiao Fang
Title: Dynamic Estimation of Epidemiological Parameters of COVID-19 Outbreak and Effects of Interventions on Its Spread Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: ff4937mj_38
Snippet: Having defined the general framework of the epidemic model with transformation functions, we next show how to learn its associated parameters, Θ = Θ H ∪ Θ f = (β, µ, γ, a, b). Specifically, we impose a prior distribution P (Θ) on Θ by resorting to existing knowledge on COVID-19 and obtain the posterior distribution of Θ given the reported discrete trajectory of official numbers [Q o t , R o t ] T +1 t=1 , where the short time window is.....
Document: Having defined the general framework of the epidemic model with transformation functions, we next show how to learn its associated parameters, Θ = Θ H ∪ Θ f = (β, µ, γ, a, b). Specifically, we impose a prior distribution P (Θ) on Θ by resorting to existing knowledge on COVID-19 and obtain the posterior distribution of Θ given the reported discrete trajectory of official numbers [Q o t , R o t ] T +1 t=1 , where the short time window is from t = 1 to t = T + 1. Accordingly, we obtain the unnormalized posterior distribution
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