Dynamic Modeling to Identify Mitigation Strategies for Covid-19 Pandemic

Patrick Jenny; David F Jenny; Hossein Gorji; Markus Arnoldini; Wolf-Dietrich Hardt

It is important to note thatk is the decisive parameter for the dynamics of the system, i.e., the number of undetected infected people starts to decline (and thereby the rate of transmission and the effective reproductive number of the virus), if k d + k r becomes larger than k i (exact, if n s n s,init ). This means that the system can be stabilized by either reducing the infection rate (containment or social distancing) or by more frequent testing. This is consistent with the requirement that the basic reproduction number R 0 of the virus in the susceptible population is smaller than one. This number represents "the expected number of secondary cases produced, in a completely susceptible population, by a typical infective individual" [5] . If R 0 becomes < 1, the spread will decline, and if R 0 > 1, the virus spread will increase. To compute R 0 , we split the dynamics of the undetected population into the infection driven propagation F 8 All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.