Author: Benjamin F Maier; Dirk Brockmann
Title: Effective containment explains sub-exponential growth in confirmed cases of recent COVID-19 outbreak in Mainland China Document date: 2020_2_20
ID: j0nm444m_37
Snippet: Containment that targets the susceptible population is a requirement for the observed algebraic scaling of case counts with time, unlike the reduction of transmission rates, or the reduction of the duration infected individuals remain infectious. Both of the latter measures address infected individuals only, which leads to a reduction of the exponential growth rate of new infections, or an exponential decay if the corresponding measures are suffi.....
Document: Containment that targets the susceptible population is a requirement for the observed algebraic scaling of case counts with time, unlike the reduction of transmission rates, or the reduction of the duration infected individuals remain infectious. Both of the latter measures address infected individuals only, which leads to a reduction of the exponential growth rate of new infections, or an exponential decay if the corresponding measures are sufficiently effective, but do not alter the functional growth behavior.
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