Author: Benjamin F Maier; Dirk Brockmann
Title: Effective containment explains sub-exponential growth in confirmed cases of recent COVID-19 outbreak in Mainland China Document date: 2020_2_20
ID: j0nm444m_39
Snippet: The model reproduces the empirical case counts in all provinces well for plausible parameter values. The quality of the reproduction of the case counts in all 29 affected provinces can be used to estimate the peak time of the number of asymptomatic or oligo-symptomatic infected individuals in the population, which is the key quantity for estimating the time when this outbreak will wane. The current analysis indicates that this peak time was reach.....
Document: The model reproduces the empirical case counts in all provinces well for plausible parameter values. The quality of the reproduction of the case counts in all 29 affected provinces can be used to estimate the peak time of the number of asymptomatic or oligo-symptomatic infected individuals in the population, which is the key quantity for estimating the time when this outbreak will wane. The current analysis indicates that this peak time was reached around Feb. 7th for Hubei and within the first days of February in the remaining affected provinces.
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