Pneumococcal and Influenza Vaccination Rates and Pneumococcal Invasive Disease Rates Set Geographical and Ethnic Population Susceptibility to Serious COVID-19 Cases and Deaths

Root-Bernstein, Robert

This study examines the relationship of pneumococcal vaccination rates, influenza, measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccinations (DTP), polio, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), and Bacillus Calmette–Guerin (tuberculosis) vaccination rates to COVID-19 case and death rates for 51 nations that have high rates of COVID-19 testing and for which nearly complete childhood, at-risk adult and elderly pneumococcal vaccination data were available. The study is unique in a large number of nations examined, the range of vaccine controls, in testing effects of combinations of vaccinations, and in examining the relationship of COVID-19 and vaccination rates to invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Analysis of Italian regions and the states of the United States were also performed. Significant positive correlations were found between IPD (but not lower respiratory infections) and COVID-19 rates, while significant negative correlations were found between pneumococcal vaccination and COVID-19 rates. Influenza and MMR vaccination rates were negatively correlated with lower respiratory infection (LRI) rates and may synergize with pneumococcal vaccination rates to protect against COVID-19. Pneumococcal and influenza vaccination rates were independent of other vaccination rates. These results suggest that endemic rates of bacterial pneumonias, for which pneumococci are a sentinel, may set regional and national susceptibility to severe COVID-19 disease and death.