Selected article for: "International license and rapid growth"
Author: Adam J Kucharski; Timothy W Russell; Charlie Diamond; Yang Liu; John Edmunds; Sebastian Funk; Rosalind M Eggo
Title: Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study
  • Document date: 2020_2_2
    • ID: gmi1ewc2_28
    Snippet: Our analysis highlights the value of combining multiple data sources in analysis of COVID-19. For example, the rapid growth of confirmed cases globally during late January 2020, with case totals in some instances apparently doubling every day or so, would have had the effect of inflating R t estimates to implausibly large values if only these recent data points were used in analysis. Our results also have implications for the estimation of transm.....
    Document: Our analysis highlights the value of combining multiple data sources in analysis of COVID-19. For example, the rapid growth of confirmed cases globally during late January 2020, with case totals in some instances apparently doubling every day or so, would have had the effect of inflating R t estimates to implausibly large values if only these recent data points were used in analysis. Our results also have implications for the estimation of transmission dynamics using the number of exported cases from a specific area (22) . Once extensive restrictions are introduced, as they were in Wuhan, the signal from such data gets substantially weaker. If restrictions and subsequent delays in detection of cases is not accounted for, it could lead to artificially low . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

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