Selected article for: "mathematical model and multiple dataset"

Author: Adam J Kucharski; Timothy W Russell; Charlie Diamond; Yang Liu; John Edmunds; Sebastian Funk; Rosalind M Eggo
Title: Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study
  • Document date: 2020_2_2
  • ID: gmi1ewc2_2
    Snippet: There are several challenges to such analysis, however, particularly in real-time. There can be a delay to symptom appearance resulting from the incubation period and delay to confirmation of cases resulting from detection and testing capacity (9) . Modelling approaches can account for such delays and uncertainty, by explicitly incorporating delays resulting from the natural history of infection and reporting processes (10) . In addition, individ.....
    Document: There are several challenges to such analysis, however, particularly in real-time. There can be a delay to symptom appearance resulting from the incubation period and delay to confirmation of cases resulting from detection and testing capacity (9) . Modelling approaches can account for such delays and uncertainty, by explicitly incorporating delays resulting from the natural history of infection and reporting processes (10) . In addition, individual data sources may be biased, incomplete, or only capture certain aspects of the outbreak dynamics. Evidence synthesis approaches, which fit to multiple data sources rather than a single dataset (or data point) can enable more robust estimation of the underlying dynamics of transmission from noisy data (11, 12) . Combining a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with four datasets from within and outside Wuhan, we estimated how transmission in Wuhan varied between December and February 2020. We then used these estimates to assess the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission to occur in locations outside Wuhan if cases are introduced.

    Search related documents:
    Co phrase search for related documents
    • analysis challenge and natural history: 1, 2
    • analysis challenge and real time: 1, 2, 3
    • case introduce and human human: 1
    • case introduce and human human transmission: 1