Author: Dawd S Siraj; Amir S Siraj; Abigail Mapes
Title: Early estimates of COVID-19 infections in small, medium and large population clusters Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: kq72rtia_31
Snippet: The effect of increased contract tracing and isolation is not only lowering the total attack rate and mortality, but also delaying the time to the peak transmission slowing build-up of cases, thus allowing hospitals and healthcare systems mobilize their workforce and resource supplies in this emergency situation. This so-called "flattening the curve" scenario will allow critical resources, including health care workers, hospital beds, and medical.....
Document: The effect of increased contract tracing and isolation is not only lowering the total attack rate and mortality, but also delaying the time to the peak transmission slowing build-up of cases, thus allowing hospitals and healthcare systems mobilize their workforce and resource supplies in this emergency situation. This so-called "flattening the curve" scenario will allow critical resources, including health care workers, hospital beds, and medical equipment and supplies, to be utilized efficiently leading to more lives saved. While we have not included explicit estimates of mortality, based on the 2.84% mortality rate in Wuhan [11] , we estimate 510 to 1335 (95% CI ) and 1192 to 1902 (95% CI ) deaths averted with 50% and 80% contract tracing coverage implemented.
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