Author: Benjamin F Maier; Dirk Brockmann
Title: Effective containment explains sub-exponential growth in confirmed cases of recent COVID-19 outbreak in Mainland China Document date: 2020_2_20
ID: j0nm444m_16
Snippet: On a very basic level, an outbreak as the one in Hubei is captured by SIR dynamics [17] . The population is devided into three compartments that differentiate the state of invididuals with respect to the contagion process: (I)nfected, (S)usceptible to infection, and (R)emoved (i.e. not taking part in the transmission process). The corresponding variables S, I, and R quantify the respective compartments' fraction of the total population such that .....
Document: On a very basic level, an outbreak as the one in Hubei is captured by SIR dynamics [17] . The population is devided into three compartments that differentiate the state of invididuals with respect to the contagion process: (I)nfected, (S)usceptible to infection, and (R)emoved (i.e. not taking part in the transmission process). The corresponding variables S, I, and R quantify the respective compartments' fraction of the total population such that S + I + R = 1. The temporal evolution of the number of cases is governed by two processes: The infection that describes the transmission from an infectious to a susceptible individual with basic reproduction number R 0 and the recovery of an infected after an infectious period of average length T I . The basic reproduction number R 0 captures the average number of secondary infections an infected will cause before he or she recovers or is effectively removed from the population.
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