Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions for containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China

Shengjie Lai; Nick W Ruktanonchai; Liangcai Zhou; Olivia Prosper; Wei Luo; Jessica R Floyd; Amy Wesolowski; Mauricio Santillana; Chi Zhang; Xiangjun Du; Hongjie Yu; Andrew J Tatem

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20029843 doi: medRxiv preprint Local governments across China encouraged and supported routine screening and quarantine of travellers from Hubei Province in an attempt to detect COVID-19 infections as early as possible. In Wuhan, where the largest number of infected people live, residents were required to measure and report ther temperature daily to confirm their onset, and those with mild and asymptomatic infections were also quarantined in "Fang Cang" hospitals, which are public spaces such as stadiums and conference centres that have been repurposed for medical care. 11 The average interval from symptom onset to laboratory confirmation has dropped from 12 days in the early stages of the outbreak to 3 days in early February, highlighting how the efficiency of disease detection and diagnosis has greatly improved. 15, 16 Third, inner-city travel and contact restrictions were implemented to reduce the risk of community transmission. This involved limiting individual social contact, using personal hygiene and protective measures when people needed to move in public, and increasing the physical distance between those who have COVID-19 and those who do not. 11 As part of these social distancing policies, Chinese government encouraged people to stay at home as much as possible, cancelled or postponed large public events and mass gatherings, and closed libraries, museums, and workplaces. 17, 18 Additionally, to fully cover the suspected incubation period of COVID-19 spread before Wuhan's lockdown, the CNY and school holidays were also extended, with the holiday end date changed from January 30 to March 10 for Hubei province, and Feb 9 for many other provinces. [19] [20] [21] The implementation of these NPIs has coincided with the rapid decline in the number of new cases across China, albeit at high economic and social costs. 15, 16 On February 17, the State Council required localities to formulate differentiated county-level measures for precise containment of the COVID-19 outbreak and the restoration of socioeconomy affected by the outbreak. 22 The timing of implementing and lifting interventions is likely to have been and continue to be important, to take advantage of the window of opportunity to save lives and minimize the economic and social impact. 23, 24 The increasing numbers of cases of COVID-19 outside China and establishment of secondary transmission in multiple places highlights its pandemic potential. The best available scientific evidence is therefore required to design effective NPI strategies and disseminate this knowledge urgently to . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.