Author: Mihir Mehta; Juxihong Julaiti; Paul Griffin; Soundar Kumara
Title: Early Stage Prediction of US County Vulnerability to the COVID-19 Pandemic Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: 901ghexi_4
Snippet: MERS and SARS epidemiological modeling has been done at different granularities such as the country 21, 22 , specific region 23 , and case clusters. 6 Given the much broader reach of COVID-19 compared to MERS and SARS, it is very important to predict at a sufficiently high level of granularity. This is particularly important since previous studies have shown that there is considerable heterogeneity in space, transmissibility and susceptibility. 5.....
Document: MERS and SARS epidemiological modeling has been done at different granularities such as the country 21, 22 , specific region 23 , and case clusters. 6 Given the much broader reach of COVID-19 compared to MERS and SARS, it is very important to predict at a sufficiently high level of granularity. This is particularly important since previous studies have shown that there is considerable heterogeneity in space, transmissibility and susceptibility. 5 Our approach is developed at county level with inclusion of a variety of health statistics, demographics and geographical features of counties. Further, we use publicly available data so that any organization could use the model. To the best of our knowledge, no work has been done to predict near future infection risk at the county level using the combination of health statistics, demographics and geographical features of counties.
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