Effectiveness of quarantine measure on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Hong Kong

Hsiang-Yu Yuan; Axiu Mao; Guiyuan Han; Hsiangkuo Yuan; Dirk Pfeiffer

China [11] . Daily passenger data from Mainland China during the corresponding period were obtained from the 48 Hong Kong Immigration Department [12] . 49 SEIQR Meta-population model 50 The meta-population model was fitted first to the data from Wuhan and Mainland China (outside Wuhan). Using 51 the reconstructed transmission dynamics from source regions, the model was next fitted to the confirmed cases 52 with symptom onset in Hong Kong with transportation data. Assuming the newly emergence of COVID -19 53 causes an outbreak at location i, during the emergence, the changes of the numbers of infectious cases I j at a 54 different location j can be determined using a meta-population framework with a mobility matrix (contact mixing 55 at the population level) such that I j = I j imp + I j loc , where the subscripts imp and loc represent imported and 56 local cases and the number of I j imp is dependent on the mobility matrix. We developed an SEIQR model to 57 include dynamics of both imported and local cases at a target location (Hong Kong), and linked this model to 58 the meta-population framework: