Effects of climatological parameters on the outbreak spread of COVID-19 in highly affected regions of Spain

Shahzad, Khurram; Shahzad, Umer; Iqbal, Najaf; Shahzad, Farrukh; Fareed, Zeeshan

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is infecting the human population, killing people, and destroying livelihoods. This research sought to explore the associations of daily average temperature (AT) and air quality (PM(2.5)) with the daily new cases of COVID-19 in the top four regions of Spain (Castilla y Leon, Castilla-La Mancha, Catalonia, and Madrid). To this end, the authors employ Pearson correlation, Spearman correlation, and robust panel regressions to quantify the overall co-movement between temperature, air quality, and daily cases of COVID-19 from 29 February to 17 July 2020. Overall empirical results show that temperature may not be a determinant to induce COVID-19 spread in Spain, while the rising temperature may reduce the virus transmission. However, the correlation and regression findings illustrate that air quality may speed up the transmission rate of COVID-19. Our findings are contrary to the earlier studies, which show a significant impact of temperature in raising the COVID-19 spread. The conclusions of this work can serve as an input to mitigate the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Spain and reform policies accordingly.