Selected article for: "exponential decay and growth rate"
Author: Benjamin F Maier; Dirk Brockmann
Title: Effective containment explains sub-exponential growth in confirmed cases of recent COVID-19 outbreak in Mainland China
  • Document date: 2020_2_20
    • ID: j0nm444m_6
    Snippet: as transmission and recovery rate, the model introduces effective quarantine measures that act on both, symptomatic infected individuals as well as susceptible individuals. We show that depleting both "ends" of the transmission interactions that involve an infectious and a susceptible individual naturally yields a sub-exponential, algebraic increase in confirmed cases. This behavior is qualitatively different from the behavior expected in a scena.....
    Document: as transmission and recovery rate, the model introduces effective quarantine measures that act on both, symptomatic infected individuals as well as susceptible individuals. We show that depleting both "ends" of the transmission interactions that involve an infectious and a susceptible individual naturally yields a sub-exponential, algebraic increase in confirmed cases. This behavior is qualitatively different from the behavior expected in a scenario in which only infecteds are targets of containment strategies to reduce transmission. In this case one expects either a stable exponential growth at a lower rate or an exponential decay if mitigation is sufficiently effective.

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