Author: Benjamin F Maier; Dirk Brockmann
Title: Effective containment explains sub-exponential growth in confirmed cases of recent COVID-19 outbreak in Mainland China Document date: 2020_2_20
ID: j0nm444m_7
Snippet: The model predicts the observed growth of case numbers exceptionally well for almost all affected provinces for epidemiological parameters estimated by preliminary studies [6, 7, 11, 13] . Furthermore, the model permits an indirect assessment of the peak time in the number of undetected infec-tious individuals (asymptomatic and oligosymptomatic cases) that preceeds the depletion of confirmed cases. This indicates that the number of unidentified i.....
Document: The model predicts the observed growth of case numbers exceptionally well for almost all affected provinces for epidemiological parameters estimated by preliminary studies [6, 7, 11, 13] . Furthermore, the model permits an indirect assessment of the peak time in the number of undetected infec-tious individuals (asymptomatic and oligosymptomatic cases) that preceeds the depletion of confirmed cases. This indicates that the number of unidentified infectious indviduals peaked in early February.
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