Selected article for: "SIR model and total number"
Author: Jose Menendez
Title: Elementary time-delay dynamics of COVID-19 disease
  • Document date: 2020_3_30
    • ID: 3y89lumh_4
    Snippet: The first approximation in the simplified time-delay model presented here is to ignore the "Exposed" category in SEIR models and start from a simpler SIR model [7] . An SEIR extension would be straightforward but may not be warranted at this time in view of the uncertain quality and consistency of the available data. Furthermore, it is assumed that the total number of people affected by the disease remains at all times much lower than the total c.....
    Document: The first approximation in the simplified time-delay model presented here is to ignore the "Exposed" category in SEIR models and start from a simpler SIR model [7] . An SEIR extension would be straightforward but may not be warranted at this time in view of the uncertain quality and consistency of the available data. Furthermore, it is assumed that the total number of people affected by the disease remains at all times much lower than the total country population, which makes it possible to eliminate the "susceptible" category S as well. This leads to an "IR" model which can be written as (2) Here is the transmission rate-assumed to be time dependent-, and the mean convalescence time. The equations imply a step-like survival function in time-delay epidemiological models [8] .

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