Analysis and Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan

Ali, M.; Imran, M.; Khan, A.

In this study, we estimate the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan prior to and after lockdown restrictions were eased. We also project the epidemic curve considering realistic quarantine, social distancing, and possible medication scenarios. We use a deterministic epidemic model that includes asymptomatic, quarantined, isolated, and medicated population compartments for our analysis. We calculate the basic reproduction number R0 for the pre and post lockdown periods, noting that during this time, no medication was available. The pre-lock down the value of R0 is estimated to be 1.07, and the post lockdown value is estimated to be 1.86. We use this analysis to project the epidemic curve for a variety of lockdown, social distancing, and medication scenarios. We note that if no substantial efforts are made to contain the epidemic, it will peak in mid of September, with the maximum projected active cases being close to 700,000. In a realistic, best-case scenario, we project that the epidemic peaks in early to mid-July with the maximum active cases being around 120000.We note that social distancing measures and medication, if available, will help flatten the curve, however without the reintroduction of further lockdown, it would be very difficult to bring R0 below 1. Our study strongly supports the recent WHO recommendation of reintroducing lockdowns to control the epidemic.