Author: Benjamin F Maier; Dirk Brockmann
Title: Effective containment explains sub-exponential growth in confirmed cases of recent COVID-19 outbreak in Mainland China Document date: 2020_2_20
ID: j0nm444m_18
Snippet: a generalization of the standard SIR model, henceforth referred to as the SIR-X model. The rate parameters α and β quantify the transmission rate and the recovery rate of the standard SIR model, respectively. Additionally, the impact of public containment is captured by the terms proportional to the containment rate κ 0 that is effective in both I and S populations. Infected individuals are removed at rate κ corresponding to quarantine measur.....
Document: a generalization of the standard SIR model, henceforth referred to as the SIR-X model. The rate parameters α and β quantify the transmission rate and the recovery rate of the standard SIR model, respectively. Additionally, the impact of public containment is captured by the terms proportional to the containment rate κ 0 that is effective in both I and S populations. Infected individuals are removed at rate κ corresponding to quarantine measures that only affect symptomatic infecteds. The new compartment X quantifies symptomatic, quarantined infecteds. Here we assume that the fraction X(t) is proportional to the empirical confirmed and reported cases. The case κ 0 = 0 corresponds to a scenario in which the general population is unaffected by policies or does not commit . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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