Selected article for: "contagion process and susceptible population"
Author: Benjamin F Maier; Dirk Brockmann
Title: Effective containment explains sub-exponential growth in confirmed cases of recent COVID-19 outbreak in Mainland China
  • Document date: 2020_2_20
    • ID: j0nm444m_35
    Snippet: In summary, we find that one of the key features of the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province but also in all other provinces is the robust sub-exponential rise in the number of confirmed cases according to the scaling law t µ during the first episode of the epidemic. This general, almost universal behavior is evidence that fundamental principles are at work associated with this particular epidemic that are dominated by the interpl.....
    Document: In summary, we find that one of the key features of the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province but also in all other provinces is the robust sub-exponential rise in the number of confirmed cases according to the scaling law t µ during the first episode of the epidemic. This general, almost universal behavior is evidence that fundamental principles are at work associated with this particular epidemic that are dominated by the interplay of the contagion process with endogeneous behavioral changes in the susceptible population and external mitigation policies. We find that the generic scaling of case counts with time is independent of many other factors that often shape the time-course of an epidemic.

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