Author: Hsiang-Yu Yuan; Axiu Mao; Guiyuan Han; Hsiangkuo Yuan; Dirk Pfeiffer
Title: Effectiveness of quarantine measure on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Hong Kong Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: byp9heum_24
Snippet: were calculated based on Poisson distribution during MCMC. Newly detected infected cases are defined as the 114 newly infected cases with symptom onset that eventually became quarantined. We assumed all the confirmed 115 cases were quarantined. The daily newly detected imported cases with symptom onset was used as the expected 116 value of the Poisson distribution and can be derived as ∆I imp (σ)D, where ∆I imp = 1 τ E imp , and D is the de.....
Document: were calculated based on Poisson distribution during MCMC. Newly detected infected cases are defined as the 114 newly infected cases with symptom onset that eventually became quarantined. We assumed all the confirmed 115 cases were quarantined. The daily newly detected imported cases with symptom onset was used as the expected 116 value of the Poisson distribution and can be derived as ∆I imp (σ)D, where ∆I imp = 1 τ E imp , and D is the detec-117 tion ratio, which was defined as the proportion of the number of quarantined imported cases to the total number 118 of infectious and quarantined cases. σ represents the pre-symptomatic transmission period, which produced a 119 delay of onset after an individual has been infected. The same approach can be used to determine the expected 120 value of the Poisson distribution for the detected local cases.
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