Effectiveness of airport screening at detecting travellers infected with 2019-nCoV

Billy Quilty; Sam Clifford; Stefan Flasche; Rosalind M Eggo

Conclusions A s a response to the ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, the Chinese government has implemented exit screening for international flights leaving China's major airports. Thermal scanning, which can identify passengers with fever (high external body temperature), allows for passengers exhibiting symptoms of 2019-nCoV infection to be tested before they board a flight. Similarly, entry screening for flights originating in the most affected regions may be considered at airports in regions in and outside China. We estimate that the key goal of syndromic screening at airports -to prevent infected travellers from entering regions with little or no ongoing transmission -is only achievable if the rate of asymptomatic infections that are transmissible is negligible, screening sensitivity is almost perfect, and the incubation period is short. Based on data from Li et al. (2020) 8 , 2019-nCoV has a shorter incubation period than SARS, and a higher rate of asymptomatic infections 9 . Under generally conservative assumptions on sensitivity, we find that 46.5% of infected travellers will enter undetected.