Modeling the transmission of new coronavirus in S\~ao Paulo State, Brazil -- Assessing epidemiological impacts of isolating young and elder persons

Yang, Hyun Mo; Junior, Luis Pedro Lombardi; Yang, Ariana Campos

We developed a mathematical model to describe the transmission of new coronavirus in the S\~ao Paulo State, Brazil. The model divided a community in subpopulations comprised by young and elder persons, in order to take into account higher risk of fatality among elder persons with severe CoViD-19. From data collected in the S\~ao Paulo State, we estimated the transmission and additional mortality rates, from which we calculated the basic reproduction number R0. From estimated parameters, estimation of the deaths due to CoViD-19 was three times lower than those found in literature. Considering isolation as a control mechanism, we varied isolation rates of young and elder persons in order to assess their epidemiological impacts. The epidemiological scenarios focused mainly on evaluating the number of severe CoViD-19 cases and deaths due to this disease when isolation is introduced in a population.