Effects of weather-related social distancing on city-scale transmission of respiratory viruses

Michael L Jackson; Gregory R Hart; Denise J McCulloch; Amanda Adler; Elisabeth Brandstetter; Kairsten Fay; Peter Han; Kirsten Lacombe; Jover Lee; Thomas Sibley; Deborah A Nickerson; Mark Rieder; Lea Starita; Janet A Englund; Trevor Bedford; Helen Chu; Michael Famulare

Unusually heavy snowfall occurred in the greater Seattle metropolitan area between Feb 3 and Feb 11 2019, totalling 20.2 inches at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport over this time ( Figure 1 ). The majority of public schools in the region were closed for at least five days, with a weekend in between. Traffic volumes on major interstate highways in the greater Seattle area ranged between 24% and 90% (mean, 63%) of average daily volume during the 12 day period from Feb 3 to Feb 15, 2019. 10 Admissions to Harborview Medical Center, University of Washington Medical Center, and Northwest Hospital ranged from 72% to 99% (mean, 90%) of average daily volume over this same period. City of Seattle public preschools were closed from Feb 9 through Feb 13, and King County public transportation was on emergency service from Feb 9 through Feb 12. Figure 1 : Snowfall, and impact on schools and regional transportation -greater Seattle metropolitan area, Jan-Apr 2019. Top panel: public school closures in two representative districts and snowfall inches at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport; center panel, traffic on regional interstate highways vs. expected (green), with mean disruption due to weather (black); bottom panel: regional daily hospital admissions vs. expected (blue), with mean disruption due to weather (black) 4 . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.