Epidemic Landscape and Forecasting of SARS-CoV-2 in India

Aravind Lathika Rajendrakumar; Anand Thakarakkattil Narayanan Nair; Charvi Nangia; Prabal Kumar Chourasia; Mehul Kumar Chourasia; Mohammad Ghouse Syed; Anu Sasidharan Nair; Arun B Nair; Muhammed Shaffi Fazaludeen Koya

In conclusion, our study provides information on India specific estimates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission parameters using real world data for the first time and shows that measures taken till date have been effective in reducing the spread of disease. However, the rising incidence and pattern of spread is suggestive of community transmission and is likely to increase cases in the future. The availability of individual level data is critical to assess the effectiveness of ongoing measures and plan future strategies. There is a need to increasingly fund infectious disease research and epidemiologic studies and make that data available in the public domain. Future studies could focus on studying genetic variations in asymptomatic individuals and those index cases with higher disease transmission rates. There needs to be a renewed thinking of health systems particularly regarding emergency preparedness and optimal utilization of scarce resources. Epidemiologists need to be considered in decision making and developing disease control strategies. Furthermore, there needs to be concerted action at global level to contain the virus including joint research and developing vaccines and drugs. All the current gains may be reversed rapidly if air travel and social mixing resumes rapidly. For the time being, these must be resumed only in a phased manner, and should be back to normal levels only after we are prepared to deal with the disease with efficient tools like vaccine or a medicine.