Forecasting Social Distancing impact on COVID-19 in Jakarta using SIRD Model

Jason,; Roslynlia,; Gunawan, Alexander A S

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a new emerging disease and a pandemic causing a high number of deaths. It is caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) and transmitted via droplets. Several countries including Indonesia had applied social distancing to reduce the disease transmission. In this study, we were using two groups, with social distancing and without social distancing represented by quarantine parameter Q. We predict the peak number in both groups using Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SIRD) model. The aims of this study are to compare the peak number of cases in groups with and without social distancing cases in Jakarta. This study result in a lower peak number and longer days of disease period in group with strict social distancing than in groups without social distancing, the current case number represent quarantine parameter Q 0.4 of SIRD Model. We suggest applying strict social distancing in Jakarta considering the duration, health standard, and other factors affecting COVID-19 cases.