Author: Liangrong Peng; Wuyue Yang; Dongyan Zhang; Changjing Zhuge; Liu Hong
Title: Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in China by dynamical modeling Document date: 2020_2_18
ID: m87tapjp_8
Snippet: As the dynamical model can reach interpretable conclusions on the outbreak, a cascade of SEIR models are developed to simulate the processes of transmission from infection source, hosts, reservoir to human 30 . There are also notable generalizations of SEIR model for evaluation of the transmission risk and prediction of patient number, in which model, each group is divided into two subpopulations, the quarantined and unquarantined 23, 24 . The ex.....
Document: As the dynamical model can reach interpretable conclusions on the outbreak, a cascade of SEIR models are developed to simulate the processes of transmission from infection source, hosts, reservoir to human 30 . There are also notable generalizations of SEIR model for evaluation of the transmission risk and prediction of patient number, in which model, each group is divided into two subpopulations, the quarantined and unquarantined 23, 24 . The extension of classical SEIR model with delays 31,32 is another routine to simulate the incubation period and the period before recovery. However, due to the lack of official data and the change of diagnostic caliber in the early stage of the outbreak, most early published models were either too complicated to avoid the overfitting problem, or the parameters were estimated based on limited and less accurate data, resulting in questionable predictions.
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