Epidemic Landscape and Forecasting of SARS-CoV-2 in India

Aravind Lathika Rajendrakumar; Anand Thakarakkattil Narayanan Nair; Charvi Nangia; Prabal Kumar Chourasia; Mehul Kumar Chourasia; Mohammad Ghouse Syed; Anu Sasidharan Nair; Arun B Nair; Muhammed Shaffi Fazaludeen Koya

where β is the disease transmission rate, γ is the recovery rate, α is the case fatality rate and ρ rate at which death occurs. β is the product of contact rate and transmission probability. As these parameters could not be estimated directly from the data, we back calculated β from R0 which was computed previously using Sequential Bayesian method. γ was calculated from infectious period -(1/ infectious period). Case fatality rate (α) can be defined as deaths out of confirmed cases. ρ was estimated as inverse of time to death. We did not have ρ from our data and hence used estimated range of 2-8 weeks from the WHO report. 17 We used 5 weeks as the value of ρ for our study. The values of the parameters are as follows: R0=1.85, b=0.13, γ =0.07, α =0.035 and ρ=0.028.