Author: Alex Arenas; Wesley Cota; Jesus Gomez-Gardenes; Sergio Gómez; Clara Granell; Joan T. Matamalas; David Soriano-Panos; Benjamin Steinegger
Title: A mathematical model for the spatiotemporal epidemic spreading of COVID19 Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: knt1f78p_10
Snippet: We introduce a set of modifications to the standard metapopulation model to account for the different states relevant for the description of COVID-19, and also to substitute the well-mixing with a more realistic set of contacts. Another key point is the introduction of a differentiation of the course of the epidemics that depends on the demographic ages of the population. This differentiation is very relevant in light of the observation of a scar.....
Document: We introduce a set of modifications to the standard metapopulation model to account for the different states relevant for the description of COVID-19, and also to substitute the well-mixing with a more realistic set of contacts. Another key point is the introduction of a differentiation of the course of the epidemics that depends on the demographic ages of the population. This differentiation is very relevant in light of the observation of a scarcely set of infected individuals at ages (< 25), and also because of the severe situations reported for people at older ages (> 65). Our model is composed of the following epidemiological compartments: susceptible (S), exposed (E), asymptomatic infectious (A), infected (I), hospitalized to ICU (H), dead (D), and recovered (R). Additionally, we divide the individuals in N G age strata, and suppose the geographical area is divided in N regions or patches. Although we present the model in general form, its application to COVID-19 only makes use of the three age groups mentioned above (N G = 3): young people (Y), with age up to 25; adults (M), with age between 26 and 65; and elderly people (O), with age larger than 65. See Figure 1 for an sketch of the compartmental epidemic model proposed.
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