Advanced analysis in epidemiological modeling: Detection of wave

Atangana, A.; IGRET ARAZ, S.

Some mathematical concepts have been used in the last decades to predict the behavior of spread of infectious diseases. Among them, the reproductive number concept has been used in several published papers for study the stability of the spread. Some conditions were suggested to predict there would be either stability or instability. An analysis was also suggested to determine conditions under which infectious classes will increase or die out. Some authors pointed out limitations of the reproductive number, as they presented its inability to fairly help understand the spread patterns. The concept of strength number and analysis of second derivatives of the mathematical models were suggested as additional tools to help detect waves. In this paper, we aim at applying these additional analyses in a simple model to predict the future. Keywords: Strength number, second derivative analysis, waves, piecewise modeling.