Author: Liangrong Peng; Wuyue Yang; Dongyan Zhang; Changjing Zhuge; Liu Hong
Title: Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in China by dynamical modeling Document date: 2020_2_18
ID: m87tapjp_28
Snippet: As shown in Fig. 3e-f , the predicted total infected cases at the end of epidemic, as well as the the inflection point, at which the basic reproduction number is less than 1 6 , both show a positive correlation with the infection rate β and the quarantined time δ −1 and a negative correlation with the protection rate α. These facts agree with the common sense and highlight the necessity of self-protection (increase α and decrease β), timel.....
Document: As shown in Fig. 3e-f , the predicted total infected cases at the end of epidemic, as well as the the inflection point, at which the basic reproduction number is less than 1 6 , both show a positive correlation with the infection rate β and the quarantined time δ −1 and a negative correlation with the protection rate α. These facts agree with the common sense and highlight the necessity of self-protection (increase α and decrease β), timely disinfection (increase α and decrease β), early quarantine (decrease δ −1 ), etc. An exception is found for the initial total infected cases. Although a larger value of E 0 + I 0 could substantially increase the final total infected cases, it shows no impact on the inflection point, which could be learnt from the formula of basic reproduction number.
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