Epidemic Landscape and Forecasting of SARS-CoV-2 in India

Aravind Lathika Rajendrakumar; Anand Thakarakkattil Narayanan Nair; Charvi Nangia; Prabal Kumar Chourasia; Mehul Kumar Chourasia; Mohammad Ghouse Syed; Anu Sasidharan Nair; Arun B Nair; Muhammed Shaffi Fazaludeen Koya

India has done well to contain population level spread to a great extent and to keep low mortality rates. India has one of the lowest attack rate of 0.47 at this stage of the epidemic which is several times lower than developed countries. 23 However, the epidemic is on the rise in India and creates new challenges such as optimal use of resources including swabs and testing kits besides identifying the high-risk groups. A recent study by Prem et al suggests that mitigation measures may be helpful only in delaying the infection from reaching its peak. 24 Thus, it implies that the measures would likely prevent immediate flooding of hospitals preventing people from obtaining adequate care. The epidemic is yet to reach its peak in India which we expect to be around mid-July and early August. Our models suggest that 12.5% of the susceptible individuals are likely to be infected during the peak. This means that there is still around 2-3 months to prepare for the worst phase of the epidemic.